MOORE’S SUMMARY: President Donald Trump this week reiterated his support for Illinois Republican gubernational nominee Darren Bailey, declaring that he’s “already endorsed him” and he’s “all for Bailey.”
WHY IT MATTERS: Trump’s support is no surprise. He endorsed Bailey’s campaign in 2022, and the downstate farmer promised to “roll the red carpet out” for the president if he won.
Still, Bailey has taken a different tack in his 2026 campaign. While not disavowing Trump, he’s kept some distance, telling reporters last month that the president “has nothing to do with the problems that Illinois is having right now.” The reason is clear: Trump’s national approval ratings are low and he is especially unpopular in Illinois, which he’s lost by double-digit margins three consecutive times.
To that end, Bailey has focused on Gov. JB Pritzker’s record and addressing issues like cost of living, public safety and public education. But even then, there are still signals of connection between Bailey and the White House. Both Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attended last week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas, with Bailey at one point sitting in Trump’s box inside the convention hall. And Bailey’s promise to cut waste, fraud and abuse from Illinois’ budget features the MAGA-coded branding of ‘Illinois DOGE.’
BAILEY: In a statement, Bailey welcomed Trump’s endorsement but kept the message on Illinois.
“I appreciate President Trump’s endorsement of my campaign for governor, but that’s not what this is race is about; it’s about the endless ways JB Pritzker has failed Illinois families over the last eight years,” Bailey said.
“From endless tax hikes to the highest property taxes in the nation, preferential treatment for career criminals while our officers are underpaid and under appreciated, all while businesses shutter their doors and everyone from workers to the Chicago Bears vote with their feet, our state is worse off today under JB Pritzker’s leadership,” he added. “Change will only happen when Illinois voters step into the voting booth and vote for it.”
While Bailey has sought to keep Illinois and Washington on separate, parallel tracks, Pritzker’s campaign team has been very forward in its messaging tying Bailey to Trump. The governor’s campaign speeches often lead with attacks on Trump, who also features prominently in the campaign’s negative paid advertising.
PRITZKER CAMP: “Just a few days after Darren Bailey returned home from Trumpapalooza, Donald Trump endorsed Bailey and sang his praises,” said campaign spokeswoman Leah Hurwitz. “This won’t come as a surprise to Illinoisans who know all about Bailey’s intense admiration for Trump. Despite the damage the president has done to our state, Bailey still supports Trump’s tariffs, cheered on his invasion of federal agents in our streets, and vowed to ‘roll the red carpet out’ for him.”
CONTEXT: Trump was prompted to comment on the Illinois governor’s race after a series of questions from Beni Harmony, a correspondent for the MAGA-aligned “Real America’s Voice.” Harmony, you’ll recall, is a Springfield native who until last September worked was a lifestyle anchor for WICS-TV. She resigned after being suspended for airing a tribute to the late Charlie Kirk after his assassination. She spoke at a Bailey rally last year and officially endorsed his campaign last month.
LOOKING AHEAD: There’s been scant polling on the Illinois governor’s race. While the Bailey campaign claims internal polling shows them within single digits of Pritzker, Illinois is a deep blue state, Trump is unpopular here and Bailey is being massively outspent by the billionaire incumbent. All that adds up to most political handicappers declaring Pritzker the heavy favorite to secure a third term.
Though Trump may not be bad for Bailey if he runs for something else in the future. For instance, if he were to run for Congress again in Southern Illinois, the president’s support would be an asset.
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