Believe it or not, it’s March. We’re just two weeks away from the primary election.
Nearly 33,000 have already voted early in-person and 132,853 vote-by-mail ballots have been returned out of 737,202 requested, according to the Illinois State Board of Elections.
The Illinois Senate is back in town this week to do some legislative sausage-making ahead of their March 13 committee deadline. Don’t expect too much excitement underneath the Capitol dome. The campaign trail is where the action’s going to be.
Today’s lead topic: Strattmentum?
Stratton claims momentum as Senate race nears close
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has been the frontrunner for most of the Democratic primary campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, but Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton claims to be closing in the final days of the race.
STATE OF PLAY: Stratton and her allies have spent weeks claiming “Strattmentum.” The idea is simple: Krishnamoorthi’s support has largely plateaued despite spending millions on a nonstop advertising campaign since last July, with most polls showing him in the mid-30s to low-40s — a lead but not close to 50%.
MONEY MATTERS: Stratton has benefited from a multi-million-dollar ad campaign boosting her candidacy by a political action committee largely funded by Gov. JB Pritzker. This has helped improve her statewide name recognition and reinforce her messaging.
DONOR QUESTIONS: Krishnamoorthi has had to fend off attacks about his donors’ ties to President Donald Trump and one’s status as a vendor for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Stratton highlighted these at a news conference in Chicago on Friday.
But at the same time, Stratton has the endorsement of and has received campaign contributions from the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association, which accepted a six-figure donation from ICE contractor.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY: A DLGA-commissioned poll last week had Krishnamoorthi up 29% to Stratton’s 27% and Rep. Robin Kelly’s 13%, a nine-point swing from a poll the group took just three weeks prior. However, a public poll from Tulchin Research had Krishnamoorthi up 42% to Stratton’s 26% and Kelly’s 10.
AN INTERESTING WRINKLE: The PAC affiliated with the group Indian American Impact is spending $250,000 apiece in support of Krishnamoorthi and Kelly; and the same amount against Stratton. The group, which backs Indian and South Asian candidates for office, has endorsed Krishnamoorthi.
Krishnamoorthi’s team is projecting confidence, but the move does call back to the premise that he’s reached a plateau. Boosting Kelly — a distant third place in most polling — could work to his benefit by siphoning away votes from Stratton. Kelly and Stratton are both Black women with political bases on Chicago’s South Side.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING FOR: Is Strattmentum real? Stratton has been inching closer in polls. Whether it will be enough for her to overtake Krishnamoorthi’s edge won’t be known until they close. We’re almost there.
HOW WE GOT HERE:
Pritzker drops $5M to boost Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in Senate race
Illinois’ Democratic U.S. Senate primary heats up over ICE
U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE QUESTIONNAIRES
Mendoza, at odds with Pritzker, endorses Kim as successor
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Outgoing Comptroller Susana Mendoza says she wants Lake County Treasurer Holly Kim to succeed her in office, citing Kim’s experience.
THERE WERE INKLINGS: When she spoke with our Brenden Moore and Ben Szalinski a couple of weeks ago, Mendoza made no secret that she was a fan.
“She’s been a mentee of mine,” Mendoza said at the time. “We’ve worked together for many years. I think she would certainly be a wonderful successor to me.” On Monday, she called Kim “a proven fiscal watchdog who has maintained a strong sense of independence throughout her career.”
WHY IT MATTERS: Mendoza’s official backing comes just weeks after Gov. JB Pritzker endorsed state Rep. Margaret Croke, D-Chicago, in the primary, which also includes state Sen. Karina Villa, D-West Chicago, and state Rep. Stephanie Kifowit, D-Aurora.
Croke is the most well-funded candidate and, beyond Pritzker, has lined up key endorsements from many of the people and organizations the comprise the Democratic Party’s establishment.
But the backing of Mendoza, the state’s leading vote-getter in 2022, is no consolation prize.
HOW WE GOT HERE:
Election ‘26: 4 Democrats seeking to replace Mendoza as Illinois comptroller
Pritzker backs longtime political ally Margaret Croke for comptroller
Bailey remains frontrunner as primary winds down
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: There hasn’t been much polling in the GOP gubernatorial race, but everything that’s been released shows Darren Bailey winning and winning big. This is part of Bailey’s calculation for not participating in a televised candidate debate on FOX-32 last week with fellow candidates Ted Dabrowski, Rick Heidner and James Mendrick.
No need to get into the mud with your opponents if you think you’re up enough to avoid it.
CAMPAIGN CASH: Though Dabrowkski and Heidner have raised some campaign cash, it hasn’t been to the level to break through at a statewide level. It remains to be seen if that will change in the final two weeks of what’s been a fairly sleepy GOP primary for governor.
Find more in our 2026 Election Guide
How to vote. Who’s on the ballot and what are the candidates up to? How to find your local election authority. It’s all in our 2026 Election Guide.
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