I spent last week following Republican Darren Bailey and Gov. JB Pritzker to a few of their campaign stops as they each took a five-day swing through various communities. Here’s a few takeaways:
- Pritzker is looking presidential. His campaign has a lot of money, which certainly helps him put on a polished production. I joined Pritzker on Thursday at some of the more personal stops of his tour, including at a Springfield diner and college bar in Urbana. But watching other events from afar, he spent more time speaking in front of giant American flags than “JB for Governor” signs. Those flags were key features at each of his major speaking events in Rock Island, Belleville, McLean County, Wilmington and Chicago.
Whether it was intentional or not, it creates a subliminal message that he’s campaigning on issues that aren’t just important in Illinois, but throughout America.
- Bailey really needs every vote he can get and he knows it. At small-town campaign stops in Virden and Nokomis, his message was heavily focused on encouraging Republicans to show up to vote and bring their friends with. He lost by over 500,000 votes in 2022 and said he thinks poor voter turnout among Republicans was a key reason why.
His running mate, Aaron Del Mar, told us they need about one-third of the vote in the Chicago area to have a chance, but if Republican turnout downstate is poor, it won’t matter. While Bailey’s campaign was expected to focus heavily on Chicago this year, a swing through downstate low-population Republican strongholds shows Bailey is battling potentially low voter enthusiasm in addition to trends that favor Democrats in other parts of the state.
It’s a midterm election, which is always hard on the incumbent president’s party.
- Del Mar is at the center of Bailey’s campaign. At an agricultural forum a few weeks ago, Bailey said “you’re getting two governors for the price of one” with Del Mar on the ticket. It was clear on their tour how heavily Bailey is leaning on Del Mar to inspire voters with passionate speeches and his big personality.
Bailey’s downstate supporters seemed impressed with Del Mar, who is the Cook Country Republican Party chair and is trying to help Bailey improve his campaign’s operation in Chicago and the suburbs.
- Christian Mitchell is also getting a lot of attention. Pritzker always heaped praise on Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, so it’s nothing new to see him leaning heavily on his running mate. But the governor’s campaign has spent a lot of time promoting Mitchell, so I asked Pritzker if he believes Mitchell, a former state representative and deputy governor, will be his successor. The governor punted on that, but said Mitchell has a bright future and brings a ton of experience to the ticket.
He’s 39, which makes him part of a generation that hasn’t had too many chances to hold big leadership positions.
- It’s worth pointing out who each campaign met with. On Pritzker’s side, his events were highly choreographed, pre-planned so Pritzker was only going to be shaking hands with smiling supporters — though he told reporters he did chat with some Republicans on the first day of his tour. Lulu’s Diner in Springfield, for example, was closed to regular customers for Pritzker’s visit and the people there were mostly invitees.
Bailey’s events were small but were publicly advertised online. At least at the events I was at, many people there played some local organizing role on Bailey’s campaign, had met him several times over the years, or were childhood friends.
- Will this be Pritzker’s last term if he wins? He doesn’t seem to have decided yet. “I don’t know whether it’s my last term or not, but I certainly feel like the next four years are an opportunity to sort of cap off many of the things,” he said.
- The most striking difference between the two campaign operations is resources. Pritzker has put $90.5 million into this year’s race and he traveled the state in a gleaming bus, a hefty State Police security detail, a lot of staff and even a video crew that appeared to be shooting TV ads or other digital content.
Meanwhile, Bailey and Del Mar traveled together in their own car while a single staff member trailed. Bailey had a bus in 2022 but appears to be saving money this time around and leaning into his grassroots effort.
- There are two very different perceptions of Pritzker. It’s not a surprise in today’s political climate and it’s something Pritzker has dealt with since he first launched his campaign in 2017. Even putting political differences aside, Bailey supporters I talked to said they don’t feel like Pritzker, a billionaire from Chicago, can relate to the problems that middle-class rural residents face.
At Pritzker’s events, his supporters said they found him to be an authentic person who doesn’t give off a billionaire persona but rather acts like a friend.
- For Pritzker, the divide in the Democratic Party isn’t between progressives and moderates, it’s between ‘Team Fight’ and ‘Team Cave.’ Pritzker first deployed the line in the early days of the second Trump administration and it has since been a mainstay in his political speeches to Democrats here and across the country. “I am willing to call out Democrats who are not willing to fight,” Pritzker told supporters gathered at an East Peoria union hall on Saturday.
When my colleague Brenden Moore asked the governor to identify who exactly was on “Team Cave,” he was reticent to call out fellow Democrats by name. Though he said the candidates who’ve proven themselves most willing to fight Trump have been winning their primaries.
“Look at Juliana Stratton in her primary; she was the one who argued most vocally about standing up and fighting back against the Trump administration,” Pritzker said. “And guess what? She won, and she won in a historic margin.”
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