Four more sleeps until Election Day — and St. Patrick’s Day for those of us who are Irish or wish they were.
Expect several candidates to march in the Chicago St. Patrick’s Day Parade on Saturday and in the South Side Irish Parade on Sunday.
Who will be lucky on Tuesday? We asked some folks in the know.
Our lead topic: What to expect on primary Election Day.
What Illinois political insiders are saying about Tuesday’s election
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: We checked in with more than a dozen Illinois political operatives and observers ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Democratic insiders tell us they expect tight races in the party’s primaries for U.S. Senate and several Chicago-area congressional districts. Republicans, on the other hand, expect Darren Bailey to easily win the party’s nomination for governor.
MONEY TALKS: One thing everyone agrees on: the dark money that’s poured into these races is overwhelming. Illinois airwaves have just been bombarded with ads from political action committees mostly representing the cryptocurrency industry and supporting Israel.
According to AdImpact, PACs have spent more than $35 million on Illinois U.S. House primaries and more than $20 million in the U.S. Senate primary this cycle.
ONE DEM INSIDER: “I think the story of this election is going to be whether AIPAC money and crypto money can be weaponized by the right to elect candidates in Democratic primaries that are closer to MAGA than to actual Democrats.”
SENATE: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi spent most of the campaign as the polling and fundraising frontrunner, but Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has closed the gap in recent weeks. Illinois Future PAC, largely funded by Gov. JB Pritzker, spent more than $10 million on ads boosting her candidacy.
As Stratton’s moved up, two PACs with ties to the crypto industry have spent millions attacking her and promoting Rep. Robin Kelly, who’s polling in a distant third. The political arm of Indian American Impact, which has endorsed Krishnamoorthi, has done the same.
“You have ads from these crypto guys that are on Black radio,” the Democratic insider said. “You have just like a bunch of people who have no interest in actually electing a Black candidate communicating at a very high clip specifically to split that vote. So it’s very clear to me that Team Raja has decided that that is their path to victory.”
Everyone who spoke to Capitol News Insider said the race is tight and could go either way. Though most said they expect Krishnamoorthi to eke out a victory over Stratton.
Kelly’s vote share is likely to be a major factor since she and Stratton have an overlapping political base on Chicago’s South Side. Though at least one Democratic operative said Kelly shouldn’t be counted out, suggesting she could appeal to voters sick of the mudslinging between Krishnamoorthi and Stratton.
More on Democratic congressional races, the GOP primary for governor and other races at our website.
READ THE FULL INSIDER DISPATCH
Outside groups spending big on Illinois Senate race
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Earlier this week, my colleague Ben Szalinski and I took a deeper dive into some of the political action committee spending in the Senate race.
PRITZKER’S MONEY: The biggest outside spender in the race is the Illinois Future PAC, which has spent at least $11.8 million, according to federal campaign finance records. Pritzker himself has put as much as $5 million into the PAC, but other family members have been significant contributors as well. The largest disclosed contribution in the last two months was $250,000 from Laura Ricketts, an owner of the Chicago Cubs and a prolific Democratic donor.
Illinois Future PAC has released five broadcast ads supporting Stratton that have focused on her pledge to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Pritzker’s endorsement. But the latest ad released this week goes after Krishnamoorthi, accusing him of being “for sale” to his donors.
“Illinois Future PAC is overwhelmingly funded by Gov. Pritzker, a lifelong Democrat who has supported candidates up and down the ballot in Illinois and across the nation for decades,” said Illinois Future PAC spokesperson Jordan Abudayyeh. “The PACs supporting Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly are funded by out-of-state MAGA and crypto billionaires who want to buy seats in Congress to prevent attempts to regulate their industry.”
ANTI-STRATTON: Cryptocurrency PACs Fairshake and Protect Progress, have spent more than $8 million on ads attacking Stratton.
WHAT’S FAIRSHAKE: The crypto PAC is largely funded by Coinbase and the Andreessen and Horowitz venture capital firm. According to the New York Times, the men behind the firm, Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen, gave $11 million to MAGA Inc. – a PAC supporting President Donald Trump. Another PAC aligned with Fairshake – Protect Progress – is spending $89,900 supporting Robin Kelly.
WHERE’S KELLY: As PACs largely for and against Stratton and Krishnamoorthi battle on TV, Kelly’s campaign released their own ad on Tuesday trying to cut through the noise: “My opponents want to attack each other while we struggle to survive,” Kelly says, pushing over a TV showing the attack ads.
LOOKING FORWARD: We’ll know which ads had some effect as voters head to the polls on March 17.
HOW WE GOT HERE: Krishnamoorthi spends $450K per week on TV ads in Senate race | Pro-Stratton super PAC touts Pritzker endorsement
Pritzker administration launches new down payment assistance program
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Gov. JB Pritzker’s administration is launching a new program offering up to $15,000 in down payment and closing cost assistance for eligible first-time Illinois homebuyers.
WHY IT MATTERS: It comes as Pritzker pushes an affordability agenda that places housing at the center, including proposals to relax restrictions on the development of multi-unit housing, legalize accessory dwelling units and cut red tape that’s slowed homebuilding.
WHAT IT DOES: The Illinois Housing Development Authority program, dubbed Access Home, would combine a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage with up to $15,000 in assistance for existing and new-construction homes.
The assistance is provided as a zero-interest silent second mortgage with repayment deferred for up to 30 years unless the home is sold or refinanced earlier.
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