SPRINGFIELD — Last summer, Republican Darren Bailey had no plans to make a second run for governor after a 12-point loss to Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker in 2022.

But Bailey said he changed his mind when he saw the Republican field developing slowly and jumped into the race, eventually cruising to a 24-point victory in the March primary.

That was the easy part. Now, the Xenia farmer is challenged with winning over voters who already opposed him four years ago and overcoming midterm headwinds against his party.

Bailey, a former state lawmaker from the state’s most conservative region, has tried remaking his image. He enlisted Cook County Republican Party Chair Aaron Del Mar as his running mate and walked back his 2022 comments calling Chicago a “hellhole.” His new strategy is to focus on the Chicago area — though he still frequently campaigns downstate.

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Bailey has also wielded a softer tone, particularly after the devastating loss of his son, daughter-in-law and two grandchildren in a helicopter crash a year ago.

But he’s also running this campaign with far less money than he had four years ago. Lake Forest billionaire Richard Uihlein helped bankroll his campaign to the tune of $12 million in 2022 but has only given $6,900 so far this year. Bailey reported $405,000 in donations of $1,000 or more between July 1 and September 30, according to the State Board of Elections, after beginning July with $127,990 on hand.

Pritzker, meanwhile, has self-funded more than $90 million to his campaign coffers.

11Despite the challenges, Bailey told Capitol News Illinois his race is the “most underestimated race in the nation.” He said he also thinks Pritzker’s spending on several attack ads shows the governor feels threatened, though Pritzker has so far spent less than in previous campaigns.

“You can’t have a conversation with me and tell me that he’s not concerned about something,” Bailey said. “He made his ad campaign purchase and he’s spending $1.2 million a day.”

“I believe he knows more of the details on what we are feeling and what our simple polls are telling us,” Bailey said.

Little polling is available in the race, Chicago News Weekly released one from Public Policy Polling this week showing Pritzker with a 20-point advantage over Bailey. The poll of 569 Illinois voters was conducted by phone and text between Sept. 30 and Oct. 1. Pritzker received 54% to Bailey’s 34%, while independent Collin Corbett received 6%. Another 6% said they were undecided.

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The president and the governor

On the campaign trail, Bailey wants to talk about Pritzker — not President Donald Trump. He got an endorsement last month from Trump that he didn’t ask for and sat in the president’s box at the Republican mini convention.

Bailey said he’s “glad to have” the support of a sitting president, saying it helps him “refocus” and draw distinctions between the state and federal government.

The president lost the 2024 race in Illinois by 11 percentage points and performed poorly in the Chicago area where the bulk of the state’s voters live. Bailey will have to attract many of those voters who opposed Trump — and him previously — to win.

With the election revolving around affordability as the top issue for voters across the country, Bailey deflected when asked if Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran are responsible for rising prices.

“It’s a short-term pain for a long-term gain,” Bailey said. “Problem is, this short-term pain lasted longer than we thought, so we want President Trump to wind this up. The situation with Iran, we thought it’d be over with a long time ago. We want this wound up. I get that, but that increase in cost is the same in every state.”

Framing Pritzker

Bailey thinks Illinois voters will be more concerned about Pritzker’s governing record than Trump and countered that many voters are unsatisfied with the governor’s two terms.

“For reasons we read every day, they don’t like President Trump, but they — obviously for what we’re feeling in Illinois — they’re not approving of JB Pritzker,” Bailey said.

Bailey also says Pritzker spends too much time focusing on Trump.

“I think I have proof that JB Pritzker hates President Trump more than he loves Illinois,” Bailey said.

As evidence, Bailey cited what he said was a delay by Pritzker to seek federal disaster relief a few days after severe storms in August. Pritzker submitted that request about a month after the storms, after the state and local governments tallied damage costs. It’s not unusual for a state to take weeks to assess storm damage before appealing to the federal government for help.

But Bailey’s overall message is that the lives of Illinoisians haven’t improved under Pritzker. He argued the governor has failed to improve state government despite numerous tax increases, and the race should focus on ways Pritzker has raised costs on residents.

“I think we have to continue to ask ourselves, ‘We’ve got a sitting governor, he’s had eight years and he’s had the supermajority, but yet we’re all having problems in Illinois,’” Bailey said.

Bailey also said he thinks voters will punish Pritzker for leaving the Chicago Bears’ stadium search unresolved.

“Gov. Pritzker being known as the governor that lost the Bears I believe will ultimately cost him the election,” he said, though the Bears continue to meet with Pritzker about an Illinois stadium deal.

Policy positions

Much of the air in the governor’s race has been taken up by Pritzker’s ads that claim Bailey believes dinosaurs and humans coexisted. The ads point to a biblical textbook purportedly used at Full Armor Christian Academy, the private school Bailey founded with his wife. He declined to say Pritzker’s characterization is wrong.

“The proposition of answering that question is so silly,” Bailey said. “I’m not addressing it. I want to talk about high property taxes. I want to talk about high utility costs, and right here, this is a perfect example of JB Pritzker being successful by diverting the message and I’m not going to allow it.”

Bailey said Pritzker’s campaign created this claim because he visited the Ark Encounter in Kentucky, which claims dinosaurs were on Noah’s Ark.

“I encourage anyone to go there,” Bailey said.

Pritzker is also quick to remind voters that Bailey is a staunch opponent of abortion. Bailey insists that he won’t try to undo Illinois’ abortion laws if he’s elected, which are among the strongest in the country.

“I recognize and respect that, even though I may not agree with that,” Bailey said. “But I will stay focused on affordability, safety and education.”

Bailey is also still making public safety a key pillar, campaigning on repealing the SAFE-T Act, the landmark law that eliminated cash bail in Illinois.

It was the top issue in his 2022 campaign. Four years later, Chicago Police Department data shows crime reports are roughly flat, but shootings are down 49% and murders down 40% since 2022.

Bailey speculated that CPD data may not show the full picture because the city is short on police officers and long wait times on 911 calls cause some reports to go unaddressed.

“We have got to make sure that people feel safe and I will argue that they don’t feel safe yet,” Bailey said.

Bailey is also trying to appeal to voters who feel burdened by high property taxes. He has called for a 1% cap on property tax bills, which would significantly reduce the amount of funding for local government services.

Bailey said the state could cover the costs within its existing budget, however, by reprioritizing spending.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.